A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
